Layoffs and sickness in Corvallis points the way for US

Wrecking America's Economic Miracle

The week's New York Times features a paper on an out-of-work software expert from Corvallis, Oregon. She lost her job when her employer shut down its US operations and hired programmers in China because the cost of doing business in this state was much higher. Corvallis was once a high tech enclave, with employers like Hewlett-Packard boosting the local economy, and employing thousands of engineers. HP has almost shuttered its plant, and rumors exist that they may demolish the buildings that made up the campus to reduce their property tax payments.

When we published our 2007 study on Blastocystis in Corvallis, the potential of this disease to wreck local economies became apparent. Every family we talked to had members spending thousands of dollars, sometimes tens of thousands seeing specialists. And every family had at least one child who had developed learning disabilities. The economic effect of Blastocystis probably isn't felt too strongly in the states that host the NIH, where the prevalence of the infection is less than 7%. But in states like California, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, Florida, New York, Illinois, and Ohio, the infection rates have reached the 10-20% range. Blastocystis packs a one-two punch. People who are infected require high cost medical services, and the infection lowers productivity. So companies who site businesses in areas where the infection is endemic will find their workers to be less productive, and more expensive to employ.

Do The Math

It isn't too hard to see how Blastocystis infection can wreck an economy. The average wage in Oregon is $29, 340 (2003). The average cost of providing medical insurance for a family is now almost $12,000. It isn't hard to see how medical costs have a huge impact on profitability. Large studies have shown that the disease that Blastocystis causes will result in a substantial increase in medical expenses, as much as a 50% increase. Additionally, Blastocystis infection often hits workers who are relatively young (< 50 years old) who otherwise would not be seeking medical care.

The first time we did the math was in 2006, and one reader commented that we must have overestimated Oregon's infection rate, at 10%. However, about a year later, the State Epidemiologist's office testified that roughly 10% of the people in Oregon were infected with the disease. That number matches the value of 12% BRF obtained from Oregon State's Public Health Laboratory, and published in the peer-reviewed journal BMC Parasites and Vectors in 2007 (see appendices). With a 12% infection rate, this means that about half of the families in the state will have at least one member who is infected.

Wrecking the Economy

We've heard about the economic problems SARS, H1N1 flu, and AIDS have caused. Blastocystis may have them all beat, largely due to the actions of the federal government. Unlike the H1N1 flu, Blastocystis infection stays with most patients for a lifetime, unless it is treated. Unlike AIDS, it can be contracted from contact with contaminated food or water. A single food worker can infect hundreds of people in a year, and can infect entire families at a time. Finally, the NIH has "embargoed" all research on the organism, refusing to fund any US study since 1995 due to the controversy that previous NIH research produced in the early 1990's. While AIDS patients can be prescribed drugs that allows them to return to work and lead more or less normal lives, federal policies appear to be doing anything they can to drive Blastocystis patients to bankruptcy and suicide.

The economic effects aren't hard to predict. Families with members who were infected were struggling. In many cases, the members were children. Every family we talked to for our 2007 study had at least one family member with learning disabilities who was infected. Diseases like Blastocystis have been shown to produce significant cognitive impairment, corresponding to a loss of 4 IQ points. Blastocystis delivers a one-two-three punch. It lowers the productivity of the workforce today and increases their cost, which impoverishes families overtime. Next, it makes it impossible for the next generation to learn the skills they will need to compete in a global marketplace. Finally, as children are infected in their developing years, it destroys economic opportunity for the next generation.

In our 2006 book, we described the cases of patients in their 20's who lost their jobs, or had to drop out of college due to the severe long-term fatigue and diarrhea produced by Blastocystis infection. These kind of effects may be why almost every developing country in the Middle East, Asia, and increasingly Central and South America has identified Blastocystis as a problem.

It's especially important to maintain the health of US workers in today's global economy. If US companies don't want to pay the extra money to employ US workers who are infected, they can simply move to China: the infection rate in Beijing is 2%, which is 1/10th the infection rate of 20% measured in California a few years ago.

Transforming the Face of America

Blastocystis was rare in the United States, until the mid-1990's, when the prevalence of the infection skyrocketed from less than 2.5% to over 20%. The exact reason is not clear, but the time period corresponded with a substantial increase in illegal immigration from Mexico (see related blog entry, "Importing Poverty").

But what will the US look like as the infection spreads in states like Oregon, California, Arizona, Florida, New York, and Ohio? While Asia has addressed the problem head on with research labs, many studies, and physician education, the administration in Washington has done everything possible to hide the problem. We may start to look a great deal like the countries where the infection is now endemic, like Mexico and Venezuela.

What are some things to look for? Corvallis has been hit by layoff-after-layoff. Most of the technical employers, like Hewlett-Packard, International Game Technology, and many others have shut down all or more of their operations here. The only sector expanding is the medical sector, as Good Samaritan builds more facilities to take care of the population. In the short term, medical professionals will benefit from the windfall of a large number of patients who need endoscopies, colonoscopies, and long term gastroenterological and psychiatric care. Many patients spend their life savings on medical tests and treatments trying to find out what is happening, and to get cured. However, because the money spent doesn't actually cure the disease or stop its spread, once the money is transferred, we will be left with a population that is sick and destitute.

So this clearly isn't a good deal for doctors either. Today, the hospital complex in Corvallis sits on a hill overlooking the city - a city which is going bankrupt because it can't collect enough property tax.


References:

Neznanski, Matt. Mayor, worried that demolition is end game, pushes enterprise zone. Corvallis Gazette-Times, February 28, 2010.

Hall, Bennett. How Safe is Your Job? Corvallis Gazette-Times, July 3, 2010: Story about loss of high-tech industry in Corvallis

Neznanski, Matt. HP Makes Another Round of Layoffs. Corvallis Gazette-Times, February 27, 2009.

Neznanski, Matt. Corvallis HP Layoffs Start. Corvallis Gazette-Times, August 20, 2008.

Rampell, Catherine. Once a Dynamo, the Tech Sector Is Slow to Hire. New York Times, September 6, 2010.

Niccolai, James. HP's Singapore lab to develop cloud services platform. Computerworld, February 24, 2010.

Hall, Bennett. Big Construction Projects to Start on Samaritan Campus. Corvallis Gazette-Times, October 16, 2007.


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